September 5, 2023
By Tyler Nesler Associate Editor
Short Cuts

线性广播会在两年内消亡吗?

Netflix co-founder Reed Hastings has infamously (and possibly even repeatedly) made the claim that linear broadcast will be dead in the water within two years. How does a panel of media industry streaming experts respond to that claim? Rob Dillon，数字产品主管，直箭新闻Eric Bergner, Manatt Digital and Technology Transactions合伙人， Manatt, Phelps & PhillipsMichael Nagle，流媒体总经理 Gannett/USA TodayJohan Bolin，媒体首席商务官 & Broadcast, Agile Content高级生产技术高级总监科里·史密斯， CBS体育数字频道, Paramount在这段视频中，我们对黑斯廷斯有争议的说法进行了辩论流媒体连接2023 panel.

Dillon says, “几年前我看到(黑斯廷斯)这么说, 几周前，它又上了新闻. 有人认为线性会很快消失吗?”

Bergner replies, “我猜这背后的想法是沃尔特·克朗凯特那一代, where America sat and watched the same network to get their news from a single source, is dying off.” However, he emphasizes he does not think that means linear broadcast is unadaptable and verging on extinction. “I disagree with that statement because there's a new generation that's more tech-savvy, 他们想要定制，想要找到他们特定的人. They can share a viewing experience on a digitally driven linear platform. These channels can be hyper-specialized, have a target audience, and the cost is cheap. If you have a library, these are ad revenue splits or inventory split deals. 内容所有者和发行商的准入门槛非常低, 这些不会消失的. 我看到它们成倍增长.”

Nagle comments on the hyperbolic nature of Hastings’ statement and argues that there is much more nuance to the present linear broadcast streaming situation. “他比我聪明多了, but I think it's the fifth anniversary of that prediction that he's made over the last five to 10 years,” Nagle says. “I think what's more likely to happen is linear going to disappear in the next two years, 还是说Netflix会在未来两年内推出一个快速平台? 所以我不认为会有什么结果. We've all had that occasion where we're sitting on the sofa on a Sunday night navigating through JPEGs, 在清晨, you probably find the skeletal remains of many people who navigated through those JPEGs and never found anything to watch. 这不是一种向后倾斜的体验. 我不认为线性会有什么进展，我们对Mr. Hastings.”

Bolin argues that “linear” is not a cut-and-dry term, as it can mean many things. He agrees that the model of a singular broadcast consumed by most viewers is ending but that linear should now be viewed more multifacetedly. “We need to start to see linear as a presentation format more than a curation format,” he says. “如果你使用线性作为演示格式, 但你在这背后使用了更个性化的管理, 我认为还有线性的空间, 即使是百分比, 我认为它会下降. But there are occasions and situations where you want to have that kind of experience [and] linear is a good way to present it. 但我想也许当里德·黑斯廷斯(Reed Hastings)说那些话的时候, he refers more to the traditional kind of linear you see on today's traditional broadcast distribution platforms more than the experience.”

Corey Smith also agrees that linear will not just vanish and that the process will be slow since consumers, in general, 能不能慢一点适应新技术. “I think it's going to take an entire generation for both over-the-air (OTA) and linear to go away because you have a lot of people out there that are not tech savvy and don't care to be, and you have to continue to keep that audience as long as you possibly can,” he says. “So the idea we're going to flip the light switch and it's all going to get turned off one day is naïve. (我认为)这种线性模式在未来十年的任何时候都不会消亡. I truly feel like the people who want to go towards the digital platforms go to streaming because that's where they want to consume their media. 这一市场将继续增长. 传统[广播]的衰落将继续下去, 但它需要很长时间才能消失.”

Smith says that new forms of dynamic interactivity will also inevitably change the way media is consumed and further erode traditional linear broadcasting. “We've had over a decade of experimentation on second screen experiences,” he says. “我们试着在 Xbox. Amazon's tried to do it. Even Blu-ray discs were trying to do a kind of second-screen experience where you could review actors and stuff like that on your screen while you're watching the main movie presentation. I think it was a good successful experiment to figure out the user behaviors, and now we're trying to put some of that science into play as we curate the digital universe.”

在下一篇文章中了解有关流媒体行业主题的更多信息 流媒体连接将于2023年11月实现.

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